So although it is easy to try and ignore the final weeks of preseason games it is important to keep up with what is going on as traditionally a key player on each team emerges, makes the final 53 man team and ends up as a key waiver wire pickup when one of the above scenarios takes place.  I will try and report next week on some guys who have caught my eye.

For now I wanted to touch on some of the news and happenings around the league and how it might impact your fantasy teams. Many of your drafts are complete with a decent amount either this weekend or early next week. Some news that is worth noting:

Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson: Well I started to touch on this last week but it is becoming more evident that Leinart is likely out in Arizona be it to another team or taking back his role as clipboard hero. Leinart has leveraged a heck of a career for being God awful at the Quarterback position. From his time at USC I was never sold on him (hell I could win a Heisman with that lineup)and it is not surprising that without QB’ing the Pro Bowl team that he never lived up to expectations. Is Derek Anderson going to light the world on fire? Probably not, but if I own any Cardinals WR or TE I am much happier as at least Anderson has proved he can put together a good season. I think his departure from Cleveland also brought him back down to earth and he is motivated to prove he wasn’t a fluke.

Value Getting a Boost: Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston

Value Dropping: Tim Hightower (Leinart’s one value was his check down which in PPR leagues made TH more valuable. Anderson is erratic at times and prefers to take a deep risk than a safe check)

49ers: I was a big fan of Michael Crabtree heading into the draft season but some of the news out of Niners camp causes me some concern. Apparently Crabtree and Vernon Davis got in a pretty heated moment that took Mike Singletary splitting them up in what he referred to as “the elephant in the room.” That concerns me as there is obviously an issue (perhaps just of egos) but those two were expected to be on the field leaders. For such a young group this type of chemistry issue is not something you want to hear if you drafted either player or someone like Frank Gore.

Value Getting a Boost: No One, this situation doesn’t help anything.

Value Dropping: Crabtree, Davis and SF RB Core

Some Key News:

John Beck signs 3 year deal with Redskins: With McNabb hobbling and Grossman being….well…Grossman the Redskins invested in their young 3^rd stringer. Dynasty owners should stash him.

Jahvid Best: Kevin Smith may very well be cut by the Lions. Best’s value in drafts just skyrocketed.

Vincent Jackson: Apparently the Chargers are asking for two drafts picks for VJ. Not being an expert on trading in the real NFL it appears this is a pretty hefty price tag for the WR. Don’t be surprised if you don’t’ see VJ on the field before Week 10 making his value for 2010 0.

Chad Henne: He has really been better than the numbers show. 29 of 51 is 57% but he has had 11 passes dropped which is a pretty large amount. If just half of those are caught his completion percentage is close to 70%. Solid Sleeper!

Anthony Armstrong: With the news on Devin Thomas being on IR, now is the time to grab Anthony Armstrong who surprised a lot of people in preseason and looks to be in great position to fill the #2/#3 spot in Washington.

Correll Buckhalter: Buckhalter seems healthy and with Knowshown still struggling expect Buckhalter to be a nice early season flex or RB #3 option.

Kareem Huggins: If you don’t have him, and he is on your waiver wire, get him now. Trust me!

Feel free to email me with any questions for your draft, week 1 lineups and early add/drop advice. It is never too early to get going on your waiver wire. jd@hattywaiverwireguru.com

Also, remember to register with Hatty Waiver Wire Guru as each weeks on the forums we will be placing special waiver wire players we reserve only for members. There is no cost to sign up!

JD

Here’s the latest:

Dropped: Donnie Avery

Added: Greg Camarillo

I think this could end up being a huge pick up.  With Harvin playing mostly slot, Camarillo is going to slip right into the #2 spot.  It also doesn’t hurt that he caught 4 balls in his debut after being with the team just a few days.  Cross your fingers that Favre’s ankle stays together!

Dropped: Jason Snelling

Added: Kareem Huggins

Norwood is now the clear #2 in ATL, so I don’t think there’s enough value in gambling with Snelling.  However, Tampa Bay just cut Derrick Ward and we all know Cadillac’s only last so long before they need to head to the garage!

Dropped: Jason Avant

Added: Jake Delhomme

This was a pretty easy one.  I have Wayne and Miles that will start almost every week, so I just need 2-3 recievers to rotate for my last WR spot.  I think Camarillo, Burelson, and Adelman will do me just fine for now.  With Favre already falling apart I needed a safety valve.  As much as I didn’t want to, I picked up Delhomme because their O-Line is very good (except when Suh decides to go on rampages!) and he’s got a good ground game behind him.  The only other starter available was Josh Freeman.  I just don’t think he has the weapons to improve an offense that scored a touchdown or less in 6 games last year.  I like him better long-term but I think Delhomme will have a better year in ’10.

*Waiver potential*

Drop: Brian Westbrook

Add: Anthony Dixon

I am in second position for waivers, so I’m pretty positive I will lock this one up.  Just like Cadillac, Gore is very injury prone.  Dixon looked hungry and very impressive in preseason while getting over 20 carries in the last two games.

To say the least, my team has a pretty new look and I think I’ve made some solid progress this week.  Here’s what the week 1 line up looks like so far:

Starters:

QB:  Brett Favre

RB:  Matt Forte

RB:  Beanie Wells

WR:  Reggie Wayne

WR:  Miles Austin

WR:  Nate Burleson

TE:  Visanthe Shiancoe

K:  Lawrence Tynes

D:  49ers

Bench:

Jake Delhomme

Brandon Jacobs

Greg Camarillo

Julian Edelman

Kareem Huggins

Westbrook/Dixon (depending on clearing waivers)

As always, let me know what you guys think.  I think it’s been a positive week for the team.  Here’s to hoping Favre’s ankle stays in one piece!

E

Email E: EasyE@HattyWaiverWireGuru.com

Laurent Robinson – Donnie Avery takes a nasty hit and this will only make Laurent Robinson more appealing.  He has the ability to produce solid numbers and was on his way before he broke his leg last year.

Rashard Jennings/Javon Ringer – snag the hand-cuffs to to the most explosive RB’s in the league.  MJD rumors are flaring, and you know there is always a small bit of truth to all rumors you hear.  Another back to hand-cuff is the injury prone Portis, make sure you have Larry Johnson in your back pocket.

Louis Murphy - Chaz is hurtin’ for dag gone certain and Murphy will get an opportunity to produce.  He is sitting on tons over waiver wires out there and you job is to make a move on him.

Mike Thomas/Mike Williams (TB) – don’t be caught looking like a fool with your pants on the ground when Mike Williams explodes on the scene in 2010.  Snag em’ while the snagin’ is good.

Sam Bradford - plays for a team that could use an explosive quarterback and Sam has the dynasty potential as well as showing flashes of solid play.

Email me: hattywaiverwireguru@hattywaiverwireguru.com

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“Our goal is to make your entire season and draft simple yet dominating and require as little research as possible; all while ensuring you dominate your league before, during and after the draft.” Kurt Turner, FantasyKnuckleheads.com

So this year, while every fantasy piece of advice that exists tells you to pick a kicker and defense in the final two rounds of your draft – I’m standing next to my new toy – the Mr. Irrelevant I’m telling you to draft this season, and laugh when they become fantasy gold, or at the most just semi-precious copper wire, come the start of the season. I do believe in drafting a defense late, and I do believe in the futility of kickers. But I also strongly believe in the value of a low maintenance, plug and play option in those spots, with a nice week 9/10 bye, that I don’t have to think about until the waiver waters of the season are far less murky, and the bench spots flow like wine. I’m talking about a place called “Aspen” (I just lost every non-”Dumb and Dumber” fan). I have no problems with moving up a round or two to select Nate Kaeding, Rob Bironas, or Mason Crosby, or the Titans, Packers or Saints Defenses with two of my last five picks. These rounds are all about fliers anyways, why not take the thinking out of my team management for the first 10 weeks of the season? I’m not asking you to go hunting for the Jets D in Round 7, or even throwing out a Steelers or Baltimore vibe in the 10th-12th rounds. I’m suggesting jumping up a little to pay for not having to worry about a defense and kicker, and in the process – looking like a genius. So here they are, seven highly unlikely to be drafted Messrs Irrelevant for the 2010 fantasy season – one for every skill position. And if you really want a Kicker and D/ST recommendation, then David Buehler and Cincinnati. Just do it and don’t ask why.

Pick these studs and laugh as you dominate the fantasy proletariat!

Kareem Huggins RB TB

Breaking news: Derrick Ward isn’t good and Cadillac Williams is injury prone. Cue rags-to-riches and coach favorite Huggins to emerge as the back of choice in this swamp. Huggins has 99 yards going in to week 3 off of 16 carries, and a further 16 yards on two receptions. That’s 5.83 yards per touch, and the last time I checked, Tampa Bay can’t afford to cede that kind of production from an already anemic offense, but with a surprisingly good front line. Draft Huggins, look cool. It’s a simple 2-step plan I’m following this season.

Logan Payne WR MIN / Davone Bess WR MIA

Want to grab the winners in the “big” trade of the preseason? The real answer is that it isn’t Camarillo you should be hunting for. And while Berrian will probably start flying off the board earlier and earlier, Logan Payne checks all the boxes for surprise candidate – with intriguing speed and height, and glowing reports from camp – he could become Favre’s rough diamond of the season, especially in the redzone. On the other side of the trade, Camarillo’s 105 receptions over the last two years have to go somewhere, and the third year man Bess seems to be the choice. With 76 receptions and nearly 1000 yards last year, and consistent year-on-year improvement in catches and yards Bess is poised to haul in a lot of balls this season and in PPR leagues is cheap and effective to target late.

Legedu Naanee WR SD

Two reasons that I don’t trust Malcom Floyd. Firstly – he’s a sixth year pro on an offense that has been led by Drew Brees and Rivers in his time there, and at 6′5″ with average speed – he should have caught more than 100 passes by now. In six years, and even after Chambers left last season, he’s still at 97 receptions. Secondly, it’s all in the name. Naanee’s is awesome, and Malcom Floyd not only has two first names, but also has a brother named Malcolm (no lie) – huge distrust factor on Floyd. He’ll get his for sure, but at the price needed to pay, and the ceiling of both players – I’m taking Naanee out of the two.

Keiland Williams RB WAS

Remember Mike Bell? Tatum Bell? Mike Anderson? Reuben Droughns? Olandis Gary? TERRELL DAVIS? Trust me on this one, draft Williams or pick him up mid-season, but you’re best bet to look smart is to do it before the 53-man cuts kick in.
“He catches the ball. He’s got a big upside,”

Anthony Armstrong WR WAS

Call me crazy – but I think this could be the WR to own in Washington. McNabb has already thrown him a TD, he had a target in McNabb’s only redzone drive against Baltimore, and the guy flat out makes plays. He might just be a training camp superstar as he’s been thus far in his career, but with Kelly and Thomas souring by the minute, and Joey Galloway officially older than dirt – the Washington corps is wide open outside of Santana Moss. And if I were a defensive coordinator – I know which side I’d shade coverage to with Moss and any other Washington WR on the field. This year’s DeSean Jackson. Or Chad. Talk to me in a month and I’ll tell you which seemed more accurate.

John Carlson TE SEA

You forgot so I’ll remind you – in last season’s last four games, Carlson caught a touchdown in every game to finish the season. Matt Hasselbeck told ESPN’s Chris Mortensen that Carlson’s photo will be on the wall at team headquarters after the season as a tribute to the Seahawks’ best player, and lest we forget called him “this year’s fantasy sleeper” for his birthday on twitter. If the cards play right – he could be a top 5 tight end this season. As long as Hasselbeck stays alive, that is…

Kyle Orton QB DEN

Orton’s progression over the last three years as a starting QB are astounding, and yet surprisingly familiar. Let’s play compare the QBs real quick here, starting with Orton:

Then say Rivers:

And for control’s sake, let’s look at another more popular option in Flacco this year:

Will Orton show the same progress as Rivers? I hope so, at least to a marginal extent. Will Orton be Flacco or better? Probably not, but he’ll be close, and with less of a running game in Denver with those hurt backs, Josh McDaniel’s scheme, and receivers a year older in the system as well as a first round pick in Thomas - he’ll have every chance to run with the big boys for the price of a tiddler.

Email Tush: rototushy@hattywaiverwireguru.com

Draft Guide $5 2010

Sorry everyone, if you came looking for the perfect draft, you’re not going to find it here…or anywhere else. But understanding where guys are going (average draft position/ADP) and knowing how to read a draft on the fly can help you optimize your draft.

Here are some thoughts on draft strategy – by position – for those still cramming:

Running Backs: RB is deep this year, but there are too many question marks for me to wait too long.  Call me old school, but I can’t stomach going WR/WR or QB/WR. I try to grab one of my top ten (AP, CJ,Ray Ray, MJD, Turner, Gore, Steven Jackson, Benson, Grant, D-Williams). I’m a bit woozy with Beanie Wells as my RB1, even if my WRs are Andre Johnson and Roddy White.

If you don’t grab one of those top ten, you better get Beanie, LeSean McCoy or Pierre Thomas. Guys like Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, or Jahvid Best may work out, but they’re scary RB1s. One draft goal shouldbe to minimize “ifs” as much as possible, and these are some big “ifs” (props to pal J.M. for that draftinsight.)

If you find yourself with a RB1 outside of the top ten, draft heavy on RB later in the draft. Mix it upbetween the various question marks (injury, age, time-shares) and hope you guess right a couple times.

Wide Receivers: Go with WR/RB/WR or RB/WR/WR. Guys Dwayne Bowe, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Sims-Walker, Pierre Garcon, Hines Ward, Jeremy Maclin, Johnny Knox and Mike Wallace are all great WR2sthat are usually available in the fifth round or later. Package them with a WR1 from the first or secondround and you’re sitting alright at the position.

There’s a lot out there about the lack of “elite” WRs, but I’m walking away comfortable with my WR1 as anyone out of Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Megatron, White, Miles Austin,Brandon Marshall and DeSean Jackson.

For leagues that start three WR, make sure to plug your WR3 hole before it’s too late. Take a look atmost rankings and the “ifs” start to show between the 25th and 30th ranked WRs.

Tight Ends: Two words: Jermichael Finley. I’ll reach for him as early as the fourth round of every draft,ahead of guys like Clark and Gates. His athleticism makes him a huge part of the league’s best offense. Ialso wouldn’t argue with taking Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark or Vernon Davis in the fourth or fifth rounds.

If I don’t get one of those four, I’m waiting as long as possible for a guy like Chris Cooley, Oakland’s ZachMiller or another low-ADP/high-ceiling TE. There are a ton of those types this year.

Quarterback: I’ve mocked around with taking a QB early in the draft (if you’re going to do it, Rodgers, Brees and Peyton are the only ones to jump on in the first three rounds.) But, the QB “sure things” stillleave me uncomfortable with my WRs and RBs.

I’d rather wait on guys like Kevin Kolb, Jay Cutler, or Joe Flacco in the sixth or seventh round, or evenThe Other Manning in the eighth or ninth. Or, wait longer and grab Big Ben to pair with Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Chad Henne or Alex Smith, ride-out one of the latter QBs until the former’s suspension is done. But, you have to spot any other owners going for the same thing (or just know if there’s a Steelers fan in your league), because you could be in trouble if you lose out on the Big Ben part of that equation.

DEF and Kicker: Gotta be honest, I don’t care about either, and will even avoid drafting them in leagues where it’s within the rules.

On paper, I’d love to have the Jets defense, but there’s just too much uncertainty and too muchopportunity to capitalize on good matchups throughout the season for me not to stream DEF. I’ll ride the hot hand, but I’d have to be bowled over by a DEF to give it a bench spot over a position player during a bye week.

I’m actually a strong advocate for removing them from roster requirements altogether. Indoors, nice weather, yadda yadda. Just pull up a list of starting NFL kickers, close your eyes, point at your monitor and draft that guy. Or the next guy. Or the next one. Really, it doesn’t matter.

If you do fall flat in your draft, don’t give up hope. Focus on the trade market. Shoot me an e-mail ifyou have any questions on potential trades.

Everything posted on this blog is my personal opinion, and absolutely right. Not just a Hat Rack, people.

Email me: hat.rack@hattywaiverwireguru.com

It’s not too late to support HWWG and pick up a $5 2010 Draft Guide

Green Bay Packers

50 Points? Are you kidding me? I realize it is pre-season but their first team offense dominated Indy’s first team defense. Now that means that either Indy has gotten that much worse on defense or that Green Bay’s offense is in post season form now. It is likely a combo of the two but that was an impressive performance.

Players stock going up: Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Ryan Grant and any TE in Green Bay.

Sam Bradford

I for one am proud to admit that I was on the hater train for Bradford. I loved the guy at Oklahoma but I thought the shoulder and just the pressure of being the #1 pick meant there was no way he could live up to the hype. Well last night performance has me second guessing that thought process. Stat Line:

15-22,, 189 yards with 2 TD’s and No picks

That is against a pretty decent set of first stringers on the New England side. The same New England who has dominated the past decade in the NFL which mean Bradford offers a very interesting option as a backup QB. Playing in the NFC West will only help him not to mention their schedule overall is not that intimidating.

The Jets

Hard Knocks is a great show and I have been thoroughly entertained with this season thus far. You know what has been a bore, the Jets offense. Mark Sanchez is still a project but anyone expecting him to make some huge leap this year is kidding themselves. LT could be a TD machine but he won’t he tearing up fields for 1500 yards this year and Shon Greene is at the mercy of his rookie QB. If Sanchez can make big strides then the outlook will get better but I don’t foresee any major changes there.

Player Stick Going Up: Jets Defense

Player Stock Going Down: Mark Sanchez, Braylon Edwards and LT

Matt Leinart

I have never thought he would make it as an NFL QB and he needs to send Kurt Warner a singing telegram because if it weren’t for his brilliance chances are that Leinart’s flaws would have been revealed a few years ago and he may be coaching PeeWee football by now. Leinart is just struggling to grasp the game speed. I think today’s news of Anderson being named the starter signify’s a few things:

1) If Anderson plays well, Leinart will be play calling again

2) If Anderson doesn’t play well, steer clear of Cardinals WR’s

Player Stock Going Up: Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells

Players Stock Going Down: Leinart, Fitzgerald and entire WR group

Those were just a few of the things on my mind as we head into the weekend and drafts boards will be going up and draft rooms will be lively. Throughout the weekend please feel free to email me whether it is before, during or after your draft for advice, thoughts, recommendations and anything else I can do to help you win in your draft.

–

JD Dowell
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru

email: jd@hattywaiverwireguru.com

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• Form your own opinions and don’t rely on experts…but rely on experts to form your own opinions.
• Be flexible…but make sure you know exactly what you’re going to do during every round.
• Draft for value…but reeeeeeeach for gems that you think will be gone by your next pick.

See what I’m saying?  Looks as gross on paper as Donnie Avery’s knee looked at Foxboro…actually, the grossest thing about that was McCourty and Meriweather pimping all over the world together as Avery writhed in pain beneath them, but I digress.  (Laurent Robinson value increase alert.)

Anyway, I don’t have a profound explanation for how all those contradictions work together, but I’ll run through each in turn.  (I’ll follow up soon with more thoughts on specific positions and players.)

Form your own opinions and don’t rely on experts…but rely on experts to form your own opinions. I don’t take a training camp tour every year.  I can’t even get the NFL Network because the building I live in is classified as “historic” (it’s not).

Even if I could watch everything firsthand, I’m no NFL scout, and I don’t pretend to be.  I played high school football and lots of Madden and I generally know what I’m seeing, but to pretend I’m a qualified NFL talent evaluator is naïve.  Are you?  (You’re not.)

But I do have access to an endless stream of news, stats, data, updates, and analysis through the interwebs.  I liken being a good fantasy player to being a good CEO…you build a good team of folks you trust to do the grunt work; then you analyze the information they provide; then you and make (and own) the final call.

Absorb as much news and analysis as you can, and analyze that information as well as you can.  But then, at some point, you have to develop your own opinions, ranks and draft strategies.  Only then will you reach true draft nirvana, young grasshopper.

Be flexible…but make sure you know exactly what you’re going to do during every round. It’s one of the bona fide nugs of fantasy goodness you read everywhere: be flexible in your draft.  It’s true, but if you go in with your team too well-defined in your mind, you’re going to end up disappointed.

However, you also need to have a pretty, pretty, prrrettty, prrreettttty good idea of what’s going to be around when your picks come, and that comes from a combination of keeping an eye on average draft position (ADP) and mock drafting.  (My ADP go-to is at Fantasy Football Calculator…but that may just be because it’s the first one The Googs gives me?  Would love to hear of which ones you prefer.)

It’s been written about very well on this site before, but ADP is the average spot where a player’s being taken, and it’s a pretty dependable forecaster with a large enough sample size.  Here’s a quick run of how to use ADP:

• Step one to is to determine your picks, i.e. pick 10 in a 12-team league gives you pick 10, 15, 34, 39, etc.
• Step two is identifying a range of players you might expect to be around at those picks.  Pick 10 gives you RBs S-Jax, Mathews, Mendenhall; WRs Moss, Wayne, Megatron, Austin; and QBs Rodgers and Brees.  Create ranges for each pick throughout your draft, and begin to identify different scenarios with which you’re most comfy, i.e. WR-RB-WR vs. WR-WR-RB vs. RB-WR-WR (sorry, not a QB-early guy).
• Step there:  Mock draft from your draft slot and try out the different combinations.  Are you happier with Wayne, DeAngelo and a Steve Smith; S-Jax, Roddy and Beanie; or what about Wayne, Megatron, Beanie?  In which rounds do you need to jump on a position to avoid a positional weakness.  Combining ADP knowledge with mock drafts helps you avoid surprises and develop contingency plan after contingency plan for the different turns your draft can take.

There’s no excuse for hitting a point in standard drafts at which you don’t have a qualified opinion of any of the players there and are just picking blindly.

You also need a little common sense and follow how the rest of the teams are shaping up.  Say you decide to wait on a QB in the Cutler-Kolb-Flacco tier and you think it’s a push between the three.  It’s your pick at 6-3/63 overall, all three are left, and only two owners between your sixth- and seventh-round picks need QBs.  Do the math and wait on the QB, and instead grab a guy like Garcon or CJ Spiller to fill in a hole or add depth.

Draft for value…but reeeeeeeach for gems that you think will be gone by your next pick. Knowing ADP and mock drafting is also critical to identifying value picks.

Brandon Jacobs has an ADP right now of 6-12/~72 overall.  I’m not hot and heavy on Jacobs, but if he’s still there at my pick late in the seventh round on and I don’t have any other positional holes to fill, the value’s too good to pass up.

The one major drawback about drafting for value is that sometimes it causes owners to pick up guys they don’t like because of their “value.”  Case in point, I’m not on the Malcolm Floyd bandwagon and wouldn’t even draft him in the ninth round, regardless of his 6-8/~68 overall ADP.  Go into every draft with a list of non-draftables…you should look elsewhere no matter how far Braylon drops, because he’ll drop just as many balls this season…ba-dum-ching.

You also need to trust your preparation enough to reach on players you think will far outperform their draft slot/rank/projection/etc…if they’re unlikely to be there at your next pick.

Jermichael Finley (ADP 5.02/~50) is my top-ranked TE this year.  Would I buy him in the third round?  No, but I’m taking him in the fourth (ahead of Gates, Clark, and any other TE). I’ve mocked enough to know the odds of him making it back to me in the fifth round are slim (and to know some effective WR/RB/QB  combos later in the draft to compensate for taking a TE so early.)

The single most important thing to remember about fantasy football: Until you have the best players at each position and a bench full of starters players, you shouldn’t be satisfied with your team.

You should continually try to make your team better, unless you’re in a league that doesn’t allow trades or severely limits moves (which I respect but don’t like).  As soon as the draft is over, flag players on the wire that interest you; identify roster strengths and weaknesses of every team in your league; identify your “untradables” and try to piece together feasible and fair trade packages that might nab you a player you need to fill a weakness.

My favorite part of fantasy football, as anyone who’s ever been in a league with me can attest (and detest), is working out trades.  More to come on that in the future, but please let me know if you have any trade questions/scenarios in the meantime.  Never too early to hit the market!

And now, some things you probably missed this offseason/preseason: Brett Favre came back to the Vikings.  Wes Welker’s knee is healthy.  Sidney Rice had hip surgery and is out for half the season.  Ben Tate is on the IR.  There’s some stranger-than-fiction running back battle going on between Thomas Jones and J-Char in Kansas City.  Mike Martz is installing an offense in Chicago.  Sam Bradford was the No. 1 draft pick.

Nah, I’m joking, you already heard about all of those things.

Everything posted on this blog is my personal opinion, and absolutely right. Not just a Hat Rack, people.

Email me: hat.rack@hattywaiverwireguru.com

Not too late for a 2010 Draft Guide from HWWG for $5

As running back by committee (RBBC) continues to shift the face of fantasy sports and values around certain positions I think that the WR position in 2010 is where you will go boom or bust. PPR leagues or not your RB’s outside of the Top 4 or 5 guys can be hit or miss each week and the consistency for your team will lie in your WR’s. Here are a handful of guys to keep in mind with the potential to be this years Miles Austin or Sidney Rice.

Michael Crabtree

I see him in the 15-20 range among WR’s everywhere. I think San Francisco is going to have a great year and if you look at Crabtree’s resume (when he played last year) it is pretty impressive. Add to it a more stable group of running backs and the SF overall improving by leaps and bounds and I think Crabtree is going to be the break out player for 2010 at the WR position. San Fran has one of the easiest schedules in the league and the NFC West is weak overall and the fact that 6 of their games come against ARZ, SEA and St. Louis means that Crabtree will have some huge games this year.

Jerricho Cotchery

Mr. Consistency for the Jets is the quiet dark horse in this WR core. With Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes getting a lot of the attention I like Cotchery as the guy who will break out from this pack. Holmes is suspended for a few games and Edwards is hit or miss but will also be the primary focus from a defensive standpoint for most teams. That leaves Cotchery as the guy who can really step out and shine and he has some of the best hands in the league and his routes will be more suitable to Mark Sanchez who struggles to throw the ball more than 50 yards sometimes. Cotch can go over the middle and he runs solid routes so he will always be in the right place.

Austin Collie

So the Colts lose the Super Bowl to an amazing Saints team and all of a sudden you don’t hear as much about them in the preseason as you might normally. Collie was a key element to that potent offense last year and racked up 7 TD’s. As Reggie Wayne, Garcon and Dallas Clark all garner the secondary attention this year expect Collie to put up some strong numbers once again. He has great hands and is very quick and quickly became a favorite target of Peyton Manning last season. Although Anthony Gonzalez is back he is already missing preseason time with leg issues and with Collie proving he can handle the role don’t be shocked if Collie has a Wes Welker type of season.

Greg Camarillo

I am sure the inbox will be flooded after this one but now that he has been moved to Minnesota to fill the gap for Sidney Rice I think he offers a lot of upside. He was putting up solid numbers when Miami was terrible so you know the talent is there. Now he has Favre throwing to him (big difference in Favre and Pennington/Henne) and Camarillo has good size and great hands. With Berrian being the natural focal point and defense focusing on making sure All Day doesn’t torch them expect to see Camarillo put up a solid seasons and surprise some people in the TD department.

Wes Welker

I am throwing out Welker simply because I see him in the 20-30 range. Yes he got hurt last year and there was a decent option filling in for him. Welker is back and will be the Welker of old. He is a must have in any PPR league and going to put up 85+ yards a game and likely end the season with 8+ TDs. Let him go past you if you want to, you will be kicking yourself by Week 6.

Santana Moss

Another unlikely favorite but someone I think is going to have a big year. He had a decent year last year while only getting about 5 balls thrown his way a game. Moss still has amazing speed and great hands. Now that he has a QB who isn’t afraid to throw it more than 20 yards expect to see some home run balls this year with McNabb and Moss. M&M’s are going to put up big value this year.

Now to be clear as sometimes I think the intention of this series can be misread, I am not saying take any of these guys as the core of your WR crew. I think they offer tremendous upside as at best #2 but really fall in as #3 or flex option for PPR leagues. Feel free to sound off in comments about what you think of the players, other guys you are seeing and overall thoughts. In order to leave comments you need to register with the site (free of course) and that gives you access to the forums where we will be releasing special sleepers and hot waiver wire targets throughout the year. We also love to hear from our readers in general be it “hey great article” or the always nice “you’re a moron” type of comments.

Feel free to email me directly at jd@hattywaiverwireguru.com if you have any draft questions, lineup advice or add/drop information you need.

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